The Sources of Aggregate Productivity Growth - U.S. Manufacturing Industries, 1958-1996

The sources of aggregate productivity growth are explored using detailed data for four-digit U.S. manufacturing industries during 1958-96 and a decomposition formula which allows to quantify the contribution of structural change. Labor productivity as well as total factor productivity are considered and the aggregation is performed with either value-added or employment shares. It is shown that structural change generally works in favor of industries with increasing productivity. This effect is particularly strong in the years since 1990, in high-tech industries and in durable goods producing industries. The impact of the computer revolution can be clearly identified.aggregate productivity growth, structural change, manufacturing

Using the Manufacturing Productivity Distribution to Evaluate Growth Theories

Some multi-sector endogenous growth models make strong predictions about productivity differences across sectors in the form of a distribution or density function. In this paper it is demonstrated that this distribution is left-skewed for a wide range of plausible parameter values. This stands in strong contrast to the right-skewed shape of the respective empirical distribution estimated by kernel methods for a measure of relative productivity for more than 450 four-digit U.S. manufacturing industries during 1958-96. This difference is interpreted as evidence in favor of devoting more emphasis on the effects of structural change on the sectoral level in growth models.multisector growth models, manufacturing productivity distribution, skewness

The Global Trends of Total Factor Productivity. Evidence from the Nonparametric Malmquist Index Approach

In this paper the Malmquist index of total factor productivity is applied to a sample of 87 countries observed over the period 1960-90. This index and the method needed to quantify it, the data envelopment analysis, has substantial advantages as compared to traditional growth accounting. Two of these advantages are that it does not rely on questionable equilibrium assumptions to merge multiple inputs into a single index and that the rate of total factor productivity growth can explicitly be decomposed into a measure of efficiency change and the rate of technological progress. Results are reported both in the form of growth rates and measures of relative productivity levels. In each case related labour productivity measures are calculated and the differences to the total factor productivity measures are analysed. Among the topics covered are the productivity slowdown, the Asian Miracle and the bimodality of the distribution of relative producitivity levels.nonparametric productivity measurement, Malmquist index, growth accounting, productivity levels, distribution dynamics

Productivity Dynamics and Structural Change in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

The paper investigates structural change among the four-digit (SIC) industries of the U.S. manufacturing sector during 1958-96 within a distribution dynamics framework. Focus is on the transition density of the Markov process that characterizes the value added shares of the industries. This transition density is estimated nonparametrically as well as by maximum likelihood, in which case the functional form of the density is derived from a search theoretic model. The nonparametric and the maximum likelihood fits show striking similarities. The relation of structural change to a relative measure of total factor productivity change is tested by an application of quantile regression and is found to be significantly positive throughout.structural change, productivity, manufacturing, quantile regression

Knowledge, Profitability and Exit of German Car Manufacturing Firms

In this paper the profitability of German car manufacturing firms is related to different indicators for the knowledge incorporated in the firms since the birth of the industry in 1886. The analysis is performed with an ordered probit model, where information about the kind of exit of the firms is exploited to construct a latent profitability variable. Knowledge is represented by the number of patents, learning-by-doing and entrepreneurial experience before entry. The results show that knowledge is significantly positively related to firm profitability and that each of the three knowledge forms exerts an independent effect.firms profitability, exit modes, knowledge, ordered choice, automobile industry

Micro-Heterogeneity and Aggregate Productivity Development in the German Manufacturing Sector - Results from a Decomposition Exercise

In this paper different formulae for the decomposition of aggregate productivity levels and changes are applied to a sample of German manufacturing firms that pertain to 11 different industries at a roughly two-digit level observed over the period 1981-1998. Productivity is measured by a nonparametric frontier function approach. The decompositions of productivity allow for an explanation of the aggregate outcomes by the quantification of the effect of structural change as well as the contributions from entering and exiting firms. Our results show that these forces drive aggregate productivity dynamics to a considerable extent. Especially the period after the German reunification is characterized by large productivity improvements, mostly driven by structural change.productivity, structural change, manufacturin

Survival Analysis in Product Life Cycle Investigations: An Assessment of Robustness for the German Automobile Industry

We apply various refinements of survival regression to assess the results of some basic specifications based on product life cycle theory for the case of a data set of the German automobile industry. The methods applied pay attention to biases in the coefficient estimates and the standard errors, the discrete nature of the duration data and the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. Robust estimation methods are also applied. We find that that the coefficient estimates and standard errors are not much affected by applying the refined estimators. The substantial results of a previous study with the same data are unchanged

Direct Targeting of Efficient DMUs for Benchmarking

We propose a two-stage procedure for finding realistic benchmarks for nonparametric efficiency analysis. On the first stage the efficient DMUs are figured out by a free disposal hull approach. These benchmarks are directly targeted by directional distance functions and the extent of inefficiency is measured along the direction towards an existing DMU. Two variants for finding the closest or the furthest benchmark are proposed. With this approach there is no need to use linear combinations of existing DMUs as benchmarks which may not be achievable in reality and also no need to accept slacks which are not reflected by the efficiency measure

The Origins of Terrorism: Cross-Country Estimates on Socio-economic Determinants of Terrorism

As a prerequisite of an appropriate anti-terror strategy, it is indispensable to assess the underlying causes of terror. We examine social and economic conditions in the country of origin of terrorist attacks, claiming that low opportunity costs of terror, e.g., approximated by slow growth and poor institutions raise the likelihood of terror and the willingness in the population to support terror. Using a negative binomial regression model, we are able to show that unfortunate socio-economic conditions in a country are likely to reduce the opportunity costs of potential terrorists and increase the number of terrorist attacks originating from a specific country. Interestingly, this effect is particularly relevant after a certain level of development has been reached. We therefore distinguish between several broad country groups, namely the OECD, Europe and Islamic countries.terror attacks, openness, discrete choice analysis, institutions